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Iran's high-risk war strategy seems to centre on endurance and deterrence

March 5, 2026

Iran's military strategy in its escalating conflict with Israel and the US prioritizes survival over conventional victory, relying on deterrence and endurance rather than direct battlefield success. The country has developed layered defenses including ballistic missiles, drones, and regional allied groups, while exploiting economic asymmetries where cheap Iranian projectiles force enemies to expend expensive interceptors. Iran is leveraging the Strait of Hormuz as an economic pressure point and targeting neighboring countries hosting US forces, though this risks further isolation and pushes those nations closer to its adversaries.

Who is affected

  • Iran (Islamic Republic, its military commanders, and IRGC forces)
  • Israel (facing missile and drone attacks that penetrate air defenses)
  • The United States (military personnel at regional bases, facing operational costs)
  • Neighboring countries: Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Iraq (experiencing missile and drone strikes)
  • Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader (killed in opening strikes)
  • Senior IRGC figures (targeted and killed)
  • International energy markets and global oil/gas shipping
  • Civilian populations in affected regions (experiencing psychological impacts and public anxiety)

What action is being taken

  • Iran is launching missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases in the region, and neighboring countries
  • The US and Israel are conducting simultaneous strikes on Iran
  • Iranian forces are operating with decentralized, delegated launch authority
  • Iran is threatening and creating limited disruptions to oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
  • The US and Israel are targeting Iranian production lines, mobile launchers, and senior commanders
  • Both sides are using air defense systems to intercept incoming projectiles

Why it matters

  • This conflict represents a fundamental shift in regional warfare where Iran has designed a strategy specifically to counter technologically superior adversaries through economic attrition and endurance rather than conventional military victory. The economic dimension is particularly significant—forcing the US and Israel to expend expensive interceptors against cheap drones creates unsustainable cost disparities, while threats to the Strait of Hormuz affect global energy markets and could generate international pressure for de-escalation. Iran's attacks on neighboring countries risk reshaping regional alliances permanently, potentially leaving Iran more isolated long after the conflict ends, while demonstrating that hosting US forces carries tangible risks for Gulf states. The decentralized command structure allowing operations to continue after leadership losses, including the supreme leader's death, indicates a resilient military doctrine but also increases the probability of miscalculation that could trigger unintended escalation.

What's next

  • No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: BBC

Iran's high-risk war strategy seems to centre on endurance and deterrence